Hubbert Peak v. Actual Peak

Filed in archive Market , Peak Oil , World on April 15, 2006

The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil", analyzes the long-term supply of conventional petroleum and other fossil fuel extraction and depletion. This theory was developed by Marion Hubbert, a geophysicist who worked with Shell Research. The oil curve (source) shows oil production over time accounting for new discoveries and new development of those discoveries.

According to this curve we are near peak production, but recent efforts in countries such as Saudi Arabia may keep the peak near its top for the near future:

"Saudi Arabia and its partners plan to invest a further $28 billion in three more huge refineries, in China, India and Texas, Obaid said.

Also last month, Saudi Arabia began opening valves on a 300,000 barrel-per-day expansion in output from the world's largest oilfield. By summer, the full flow of the oil is supposed to be under way.

These are just the latest installments of what experts describe as the world's largest oil expansion effort, which will boost Saudi Arabia's output capacity by 2009 by almost 14 percent from 11 million to 12.5 million barrels per day."
www.charleston.net

Time will tell how closely Hubbert predicted oil peaks and decline. But presently, his theory is subject to continued debate because of the potential effects of lowered oil production. Critics of his theory argue that peaks in oil production are more closely tied to politics, policies and environmental regulations and some maintain that petroleum is a renewable resource.

Overall, we have an ever increasing demand with an uncertain supply. Oil Supply v. Demand and Oil Theory v. Reality, what are your thoughts?

IfEnergy.com